The future and week of July 5 – 10, 2020

The deviation for the NFP was huge but the spike was only about 20 with an instant retracement.

It is difficult to say when the markets will start behaving normally again, but it is impossible to make any money in these markets by Straddle trading. My hope was this would go away quick and things would get back to normal, but that doesn’t appear likely, so it is a waste to keep doing this.

So here is what I’d like to propose. Those of you that are paying, cancel your payments. I think you can do it on the HOT website or through Paypal.

I will NOT turn off your access to it so you are free to use it as much as you would like. I will also try some trades like NFP and some of the bigger movers to see when things get back on track, and maybe we can review things again then, but for now it makes no sense to be paying anything for this.

I may make a weekly post here or there and mention some of the bigger trades, but will cut back on daily posting. If there is no weekly post it means I am not personally planning on doing any trades the following week. But you all have been trading long enough to know what trades to try and how to set up for it, so that shouldn’t be a problem. Send me an email if you have questions about a trade.

So feel free to stop your payments. Keep an eye on the blog for an occasional update and maybe to see when things start working again.

Next week I might try the CAD Employment Change on Friday. The AUD Cash rate is at 12:30 in the morning for me so that is out.

Good luck moving forward.

Barry

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Forex News Trading: Trade for Thursday, July 2, 2020

8:30 AM EDT
US Non-Farm Employment Change
XAU/USD

It is expected the US will gain a little over 3 million jobs for June. This seems reasonable but it could deviate quite drastically from that number. I doubt we will see much follow through but could see a decent spike if the number comes out much different from this, and particularly if it comes out higher.

The markets are looking for signs that things are slowly getting back to normal. This would be one small sign. Don’t look for much here, but it is possible we could see a spike and quick retracement.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 8 or 10 and get out pretty quickly whether you get in or not.

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Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, June 30, 2020

8:30 AM EDT
CAD GDP
USD/CAD

The GDP is forecast to drop from -7.2% to -10.5%. I personally would not expect a big move, or even a small move, if they miss their guess by a lot. We are still in uncharted territory, but my guess is that unless it came out actually positive, say +1.0% or something like that, we will see very little movement. The odds of this are extremely small.

Trade sparingly if at all.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 10 and get out fast whether you go live or not.

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Forex News Trading: Trades for week of June 28 – July 3, 2020

The one trade this past week was an interest rate that did not change.

For the upcoming week the trades I will post are:

Tue 8:30 AM – CAD GDP
Thu 8:30 AM US Non-Farm Employment Change

The CAD trade will likely be a non-starter so we are left with the NFP. NOTE it is on Thursday, not Friday, due to the 4th of July holiday.

Anyway I hope you have a great weekend.

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Forex News Trading: Trade for Tuesday, June 23, 2020

10:00 PM EDT
NZD Official Cash Rate
NZD/USD

The rate is at 0.25% (like most everybody elses rate), and it is expected the rate will be left there for now. Since the Kiwi numbers are reported quarterly for CPI and GDP, they may be one of the last countries to start raising their rates since the recovery will not be as apparent until the next set of numbers come out.

It is highly unlikely they will raise the rate.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 35 and get out if there is not a huge spike within a few seconds.

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Forex News Trading: Trades for week of June 21 – 26, 2020

We continue to limp along in this bizarre year. Many economies are starting to bounce back, so I am expecting thing to begin to return to a degree of normalcy with the June numbers (coming out in July). I thought the May numbers would return us but that did not happen so far.

I missed all the trades this week because I was out Wednesday evening when half of them were, so not really sure if there was any decent movement or not.

Oddly the upcoming week again has almost no red folders in Forex Factory. It looks like what they have done is change some of the red folder trades to orange folders due to the likelihood of little to no movement. The following week also doesn’t have as many as it should either, though NFP falls that week.

The trade I will post is:

Tue 10:00 PM – NZD Official Cash Rate

Hope you are able to find some things open and have a great weekend doing those things.

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Forex News Trading: Trade for Thursday, June 18, 2020

7:00 AM EDT
UK Official Bank Rate
GBP/USD

The rate is expected to remain at 0.10% and the MPC is expected to vote 0-0-9 to leave the rate where it is for now. It seems quite unlikely anyone would vote to start raising the rate given the unsettled nature of things these days. Not really sure it would move much even if someone did vote to raise it.

I’d trade sparingly.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 35 and get out if there is not a huge spike within a couple seconds. Even if there is I’d get out quick since the follow through will not likely be strong.

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Forex News Trading: Trades for Wednesday, June 17, 2020

8:30 AM EDT
CAD CPI
USD/CAD

The forecast is for the CPI number to go from -0.7% to 0.8%, a 1.5% change. It is expected the economy in Canada is recovering quickly also. Not sure if we will see much of a move from this one unless they miss by a large amount, but the numbers are starting to get back to normal again which should mean trades will do the same.

SETTINGS: I’d try buy/sellPips of maybe 10 or 12 and get out fast whether you get in or not.

6:45 PM EDT
NZD GDP q/q
NZD/USD

The Kiwi GDP is expected to drop from 0.5% to -1.0%, a turn around of -1.5%. This is due to the fact that this release is quarterly so it incorporates two months of drops but only one month of gains. I’m sure the economy took a good bounce up last month like most others did.

I wouldn’t put much faith in this one because of this.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 15 or 20 and get out fast if you get in at all.

9:30 PM EDT
AUD Employment Change
AUD/USD

The jobs number is expected to fall another 75k and the unemployment rate is expected to jump from 6.2% to 7%. It seems there is a decent chance they will miss the guess on this one by quite a bit, but whether the markets will care is another story. Like all the other trades, go extremely light on this.

SETTINGS: Try buy/sellPips of 8 to 10 and get out fast if you get in.

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Forex News Trading: Trades for week of June 14 – 19, 2020

This past week had only 2 trades. The US interest rate remained the same. The CPI deviated by only .1 though it came back from -0.8% to -0.1%. I missed the trade so not sure if there was any movement.

For the upcoming week the trades I will post are:

Wed 8:30 AM – CAD CPI
Wed 6:45 PM – NZD GDP q/q
Wed 9:30 PM – AUD Employment Change
Thu 7:00 AM – UK Official Bank Rate

That is the list. There is potential with some of these. Have a great weekend.

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Forex News Trading: Trades for Wednesday, June 10, 2020

8:30 AM EDT
US CPI
XAU/USD

The forecast is the the CPI to go from -0.8 to 0.0%. The CPI should return to normal within another month or two. Whether the markets will react to this or not remains to be seen, but it will be worth a look.

I would get out fast if you get in.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 8 and get out one way or the other relatively quickly. Hopefully you can snag a few pips.

2:00 PM EDT
US Federal Funds Rate
XAU/USD

I don’t see any predictions about this. Forex Factory indicates the rate will remain the same, and for now that is likely. If you trade it and want to be safer, do a sell only.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 25 or 30. Get out right away if there is not a huge spike. Set sellOnly to “y” if you want to be more cautious.

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