Forex News Trading: Trades for Thursday, January 30, 2020

7:00 AM EST
UK Official Bank Rate
GBP/USD

It is expected the rate will be left at 0.75%. The MPC votes are expected to be 0-3-6, a change from 0-2-7 last month. So it is expected one more member will vote to lower the rate at some point in the not-too-distant future.

The problem is that Brexit is right around the corner and the market, fearful of what might happen, will not want to see the price change much from where it currently is, so I would expect even if there is a spike, it will retrace fast.

Remember two months ago 2 of the members surprised the market by deviating from the expectation which should have caused a huge spike, but it only spiked 35 or so and then retraced quickly. So if you trade it at all, be very cautious with your lot sizes and be prepared to get out quick if you sense a hard retracement.

SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 40. Get out if you are not live within a couple seconds.

8:30 AM EST
US Advance GDP q/q
XAU/USD

In April we saw a deviation of 1 with a 22 pip spike on the EUR/USD. Huge deviation but a very small spike with full retracement within a couple minutes.

In July we saw a deviation of .3 with a 14 pip spike. The eur/usd only moved 10 and retraced quickly. The xau/usd spiked hard. The spreads ranged from 43 to 90 on 3 different brokers. One didn’t get in due to high spreads. The second got in but immediately got taken out due to the spread of 60. The third took me in, moved the stop to breakeven instantly, and pushed down my way 40 pips.

In October we saw .3 with a 30 pip spike. The spike was decent for the small deviation. It continued pushing down another dozen pips over the next couple minutes before retracing.

This is a decent trade. Lately we have seen reasonable moves from small deviations.

The forecast is 2.1% which is in the middle of the range of recent forecasts. It is common for this to deviate, sometimes substantially.

This is how I will trade it. On the no-slippage broker I will trade decent lot sizes and set buy/sellPips to 8 or 10. On the other brokers I will trade small lot sizes and set buy/sellPips to 20. Will look to exit within 15 or 20 seconds unless the move is real big and my no-slip trades are way up. Then I might hold onto one of them awhile longer.

SETTINGS: See above.

About Barry Battista

I am a software guy that started trading in 2006. I have been trading the news for a living ever since. Eventually I wrote some code to help a friend and I improve our odds, and gradually the software took on a life of its own. My intention is to adapt this trading style to the ever changing Forex markets to always provide the trader with the tools and information to give them the maximum odds of a profitable trade.
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