Well, the week was another dud until today. I personally didn’t make any pips because the US NFP went out at zero, but we did see a huge jobs gain in favor of the Dollar and an actual move with some follow through. The markets will be elated to see the economy on the upswing and should hopefully start reacting in a more forceful manner to the news.
In the NFP, the spike was about 16 or so. My order went in and was instantly set to zero, but a single tick back took me out though as the spread was north of 20.
Looking ahead is appears to be a strangely quiet week for the second week of the month. The trades I will post are:
Wed 8:30 AM – US CPI
Wed 2:00 PM – US Federal Funds Rate
That’s it. Almost no red folders. Looks like a bunch of trades the following week. Hopefully other pairs will start moving again also.
Have a great weekend.
8:30 AM EDT
US Non-Farm Employment Change
There is no sense in looking at the history of this. The forecast is for 8 million more unemployed and the unemployment rate going up roughly 5% from 14 to 19.
These numbers are still very ugly though businesses are starting to reopen and by the July report I would expect lots of new jobs to have been added (in June). Until then we have this.
I have not seen any movement at all from recent trades. The AUD GDP q/q this week didn’t budge though the deviation was better than expected by 0.1%.
Not sure what to expect from this one, but would be surprised to see a move big enough to get in.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 10 and get out quick whether you are in or not.
8:30 AM EDT
CAD Employment Change
In Canada the expectation is for another 500,000 unemployed and the unemployment rate pushing up another 2%. Expect the same thing here as with the US NFP. Not really much else to say.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 10 or 12 and get out within a few seconds whether you go live or not. Do not expect follow through.
10:00 AM EDT
CAD Overnight Rate
Every economist interviewed thinks the BoC will keep the rate at 0.25% all the way till the end of 2021, indicating an expectation of a long slow recovery.
I would expect they modify this as the economy starts to bounce back, but for now there is no incentive to raise the rate since they don’t really know how quickly the recovery will kick into gear.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 35. Get out if there is not a huge spike within a couple seconds. If you want to be safer, do a sell only as this is considered the rate floor so the only place for rates to go is up.
1:30 AM EDT
AUD Cash Rate
There is not a lot of speculation available on the odds of a rate change. It seems unlikely they will begin raising it this soon, but I have no data to back that up, only gut feel. I would not even consider getting up at this hour to do this, but if you are up anyway you might give it a try.
I would do a buy only since the world seems to be in the very beginnings of a recovery at this time.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 35 and buyOnly to “y”. Get out if there is not a huge spike within a couple seconds of the posted time.
9:30 PM EDT
AUD GDP q/q
The forecast is for -0.4% growth, which represents a -0.9% drop from last quarter. I think the month to month drop will be a lot less drastic, but this is reported quarterly hence the big swing. The market will likely treat this like the recent trades, ignoring big deviations, but it will be worth a small trade anyway.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 10 or 12. I’d get out pretty quick whether you go live or not. Trade small lot sizes.
It seems like forever since we did any real trading. The unemployment numbers are starting to level off so it looks like the worst is over, though the recovery will be slowed because each state is opening up at a different pace. But at least some are opening back up.
For the upcoming week the trades I will post are:
Tue 1:30 AM – AUD Cash Rate
Tue 9:30 PM – AUD GDP q/q
Wed 10:00 AM – CAD Overnight Rate
Fri 8:30 AM – US Non-Farm Employment Rate
Fri 8:30 AM – CAD Employment Change
That is it for the week. The AUD Cash Rate is at 1:30 in the morning so that is out for me. Not sure any of the central banks will begin to raise their interest rates back up this early in the game, but they are seriously considering when they might start doing that.
The US NFP has a chance of causing some movement, though it will remain to be seen whether the markets are prepared to take the numbers seriously or not. The forecast is for another 8 million lost jobs in May.
Have a good weekend and let’s see if this is the beginning of a return to normalcy or not next week.
Again this week there are almost no red folders. When times are really good the CAD GDP is a fair trade but now it is relatively useless so I would not do it.
Lots of countries have started to open up, so we should start seeing things slowly get back to normal regarding trading as the summer marches on. I will personally start making small trades again the first week of June in hopes we start seeing at least small moves again. What we really need to see is the insane deviations start to go away.
The markets like predictability so the sooner things get that way, regardless of what the prediction is, the sooner we will see a return of sanity.
It was another week of paralysis. I didn’t try any of the trades but looked after the fact and saw little to no movement with the ones I checked. No surprise here.
Looking ahead to next week, well, not much to see. There are very few red folders. A lot of PMI trades and a few CPI’s but nothing of substance.
Looking ahead to the following week there are still almost no red folders. It is not till the first week of June that the trades start showing up again. Hopefully by then we will start seeing some proper movement again.
9:30 PM EDT
AUD Employment Change
The forecast is for over a half million jobs lost and the unemployment rate to take a 3.1% spike up. This is likely in the ballpark but won’t make much difference as far as we are concerned. Trade with extreme caution.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 12 or so. Get out whether you are live or not within a few seconds.
I was helping my son move today and forgot about this.
8:30 AM EDT
The forecast is for -0.7% which is insanely high. But don’t expect any movement even if they miss badly. The hope here is that the numbers start getting less bad.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to maybe 12 or so. Whether you get in or not, get out fast.
NZD Official Cash rate
Their rate is at 0.25%. New Zealand has restarted their economy. They are expecting the economy to rebound and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them start raising the rate slowly back to where it was. Might not start tomorrow night since things just reopened and they need to see how quickly things start getting back to normal.
SETTINGS: Set buy/sellPips to 35 and get out if there is not a huge spike within a couple seconds.
There were some huge deviations this week but no movement that I saw. We are not out of the woods yet.
For next week the trades I will post are:
Tue 8:30 AM – US CPI
Tue 10:00 PM – NZD Official Cash Rate
Wed 9:30 PM – AUD Employment Change
That’s it. None of these is likely to matter. The NZD interest rate is already at zero so like other countries, they are looking at other ways to get things under control. The CPI and Employment numbers are expected to be horrible, and will be.
Anyway that’s where we stand. Waiting for the madness to settle out. Hopefully this month.